IDC Forecasts PC and Tablet Shipments to Grow 3.3% in 2020 Before Resuming Their Long-Term Decline in 2021

The first half of 2020 has seen a resurgence in the PC and tablet markets and demand continues to outpace supply. The demand is largely being driven by work from home and at home education needs, although the general lockdowns produced some additional buying for entertainment purposes. As a result, International Data Corporation (IDC) expects the personal computing devices (PCD) market, which includes traditional PCs, tablets, and workstations, will grow 3.3% year over year in 2020 with shipment volumes reaching 425.7 million units.

This year’s growth is notable given that 2019 was an unusually strong PC market, largely driven by commercial purchases for the Windows 7 end-of-support transition. And the COVID-19 response accelerated demand for PCs and tablets from both the commercial segment and the consumer segment this year. “Consumers have been stuck at home, unable to spend on restaurants, movies, and other day-to-day activities,” said David Myhrer, research vice president for IDC’s Consumer Technology Strategy Service. “Technology has been the big winner in all of this as device spending has been especially surprising, with spend at year-end, holiday-like levels throughout much of the second quarter.”

While this recent surge in PC and tablet demand still has some legs, IDC expects the PCD market to decline in 2021 as businesses and consumers continue to deal with the economy uncertainty brought on by the pandemic. Looking ahead the market is forecast to resume its long-term decline with a compound annual growth rate of -2.2% as shipments fall to 389.6 million units in 2024.

“Schools around the world are already scrambling to procure notebooks for their students. The excessive demand, some short-term component shortages, and general uncertainty about the upcoming school year have led many schools to purchase as many units as they can,” said Jitesh Ubrani, research manager for IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. “Unfortunately, these additional purchases during 2020 means that many schools will have blown through their future budgets, which will contribute to double-digit declines in the education segment during 2021 and 2022.”

Table Notes:

*All figures represent forecast data.

• Traditional PCs include Desktop, Notebook, and Workstation.
• Total tablets include both slate and detachable tablets.
• 2-in-1 devices are a category including convertible PCs and detachable tablets. Convertible PCs are notebook computers equipped with an integrated keyboard and display that can be used in either a traditional notebook configuration or a slate configuration. A detachable tablet meets all the criteria of a slate tablet but is designed to operate with a first-party keyboard designed specifically for the device.

In addition to the table above, a graphic illustrating IDC’s PCD forecast for unit shipment growth during the 2020-2024 forecast period is available by viewing this press release on IDC.com.

IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker gathers data in more than 90 countries and provides detailed, timely, and accurate information on the global personal computing device market. This includes data and insight into global trends around desktops, notebooks, detachable tablets, slate tablets, and workstations. In addition to insightful analysis, the program delivers quarterly market share data and a five-year forecast by country. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis.

For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC’s Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

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About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading tech media, data and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights: http://bit.ly/IDCBlog_Subscribe.

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