Shift Work Rebounds 25% in Last 8 Weeks According to Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report

Kronos Incorporated today announced that its update on weekly workforce activity for June 1-7, 2020 shows the volume of shifts being worked¹ has increased 25% in the last 8 weeks. Since April 12, 2020 – which represents “the bottom” of employee shift work during the pandemic – Kronos has tracked 8 weeks of gradual but consistent increases in shift work (excluding an expected Memorial Day holiday dip) which predicted May’s better-than-expected unemployment report before it was released.

To date, 45% of the total shifts lost during the COVID-19 pandemic have been recovered as states reopen and some businesses resume operations. However, it is critical to remember that shifts worked remains dramatically down when compared to the week ending March 15, 2020, the last full week of typical workplace activity before the COVID-19 national state of emergency declaration.

Nevada shifts increased 63% week-over-week as casino gaming began to resume, the largest single-week jump by any state in the nation since the beginning of COVID-19. Massachusetts continues its drop to become the third hardest-hit state in terms of total shifts lost (-40% overall) as many states, including Oklahoma (-38%), South Carolina (-35%), New Mexico (-33%), and Nevada (-22%) recover shifts more quickly. Rhode Island (-59%) remains largely stagnant as the hardest-hit state in the nation, followed by Connecticut (-49%).

A public sector rally continues as shifts worked in this industry have rebounded 45% since the week ending April 12 – which represents “the bottom” of shift work activity during the pandemic – yet, public sector shifts overall remain down 35% since the week ending March 15. Healthcare shifts worked are now down just 9% and may be the first industry to reach pre-pandemic shift work volume. Manufacturing (-17% overall), retail, hospitality, and food service (-21% overall), and services and distribution (-24% overall) have each seen shift work grow approximately 25% since the week ending April 12.

Employee terminations² held flat week-over-week, but still remain 46% higher than the week ending March 15. New hires⁴ also remain flat week-over-week, with the weekly average down 35% from pre-pandemic levels. The number of pay statements³ issued is down just 7% since late March despite big swings in shifts worked that also closely aligned with weekly and monthly unemployment reports, which further demonstrates the value of incorporating data about shifts worked in economic modeling and forecasts.

“We’re still in the euphoric phase of reopening and following last week’s May unemployment report – including the exuberance around its positive nature – it’s important to remember that unemployment remains at levels we haven’t experienced in more than 75 years. June, July, and August will tell us a lot, especially as the Payroll Protection Program funding provided to many small businesses becomes depleted. Hope is high and we expect to learn a lot about the trajectory and velocity of the recovery leading up to the July 4^th holiday.”

The Kronos U.S. Workforce Activity Report provides near real-time insights into workplace activity for the immediate preceding week. The report is currently analyzed and released weekly and inclusive of data through June 7. Reports are available at Kronos.com/USWorkforceActivity.