Predicted figures still below average
Global GDP for the electronic system and IC markets looks set to rise 0.6 points to 3.2 percent in 2013, research has found.
However, in its IC Market Drivers – A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fuelling Demand for Integrated Circuits, report, IC Insights said these figures were still below long term average.
Throughout 2012, the expectations for global economic growth had consistently deteriorated. The report says that global GDP growth was expected to expand by an estimated 2.6 percent in 2012, very close to the global recession threshold of 2.5 percent and well below the long-term average growth rate of 3.5 percent.
Although the forecast for worldwide GDP in 2013 is 3.2 percent growth – better than this year – it would still be 0.3 points below the long-term average growth rate.
With one month remaining in 2012, there are hints that the economies in China and the US are improving, including stronger housing demand and hiring in the US, and accelerating factory output and retail sales in China.
Following “industry-average” electronic system sales growth of six percent in 2011, electronic system sales are expected to grow three percent in 2012—half the long-term average.
However, the research company was upbeat – claiming that the improving outlook for global GDP is forecast to help boost electronic systems growth by five percent in 2013.
Computer sales are estimated to grow by only one percent in 2012, down from the 11 percent growth registered in 2010.
2013 will see the communications category overtaking computers as the largest end-use segment, which will be the first time this has happened.
Surging smartphone shipments are driving this growth, with IC Insights estimating that smartphones will account for 49 percent of total mobile market share in the last quarter of 2012. Total smartphone shipments are expected to rise 55 percent to 750 million units for all of 2012.
The prospect of stronger electronic systems growth in 2013 has raised the outlook for the IC market as well.
IC Insights’ updated forecast shows the IC market growing six percent in 2013 and improving to an average annual growth rate of 7.4 percent between 2011 and 2016, more than double the 3.3 percent average growth for the IC industry in the previous 2006-2011 period.